Figures from the organisation TNS Retail and contained in a recent advisory committee paper show that the brakes were slammed on sales during the three month period from mid May to mid August this year, which included a fall in production levels for the first time in a number of years.

The annual figure to mid August shows that in value terms total fish sales were up by a fairly healthy five per cent to just over £2.3billion. Chilled fish showed the largest increase at seven per cent to almost £1.232billion. Frozen fish was up two per cent to £700.6million, while canned fish also increase by two per cent to just over £370.4million. The total production figures for the year were up by just one per cent to 410,935 tonnes. The chilled market accounted for 154,245 tonnes, frozen - 144,667 tonnes and canned - 112,023 tonnes.

But it is the statistics for the final quarter of the year that show what may be the start of a reduction in production. The total market was down one per cent at 92,455 tonnes. Chilled fish production fell four per cent to 34,172 tonnes, frozen fell three per cent to 29,733 tonnes, but canned fish was up five per cent to 28,550 tonnes.

The total retail value rose three per cent to £523.982million, accounted for almost certainly by price increases to retailers and subsquent price increases in the shops. The value breakdown for the quarter to mid August is chilled up three per cent to £284.681million, frozen up two per cent to £146.216million and canned up five per cent to £93.085million.

The downward trend may look worrying, but what the information fails to mention is that the final quarter period included the hottest summer in the UK for decades. During much of June and July, hardly anyone turned on a cooker or a grill and virtually all food manufacturers including those in non fish reported a serious slump in sales. Even barbequed food lay on the supermarket shelves because it was too hot to cook outside on many days. The only winners during June and July were salad suppliers and ice cream manufacturers.

The Icelandic group, which owns Coldwater Seafoods in the UK, said in a recent financial review that the hot summer badly knocked their sales and their profits. The month long World Cup also distorted normal eating habits which, in turn, had an effect on fish sales.

Only canned fish seems to be bucking the trend which suggests that the health quest for oily fish such as sardines and tinned salmon will continue whatever happens.

Seafish says in the advisory paper that the average price of fish per kilo increased by 5.7 per cent over the 12 months, but went up by 7.7 per cent to £8.33p per kilo during the final quarter. The resulting price rise in the shops may be slowing sales..

Some fishing industry observers believe that it may be better to wait for the next quarter figures and probably those following to obtain a more accurate overall trend. The effects of a long hot summer will be out of the way and only then can the industry evaluate if sales are really starting to slow down. Another unknown factor is the impact of soaring utility bills, especially for gas, electricity and water. If people are cutting back on food spending as a result then seafood and food manufacturers in general may have to seriously re-evaluate their markets.

www.fishupdate.com is published by Special Publications. Special Publications also publish FISHupdate magazine, Fish Farmer, the Fish Industry Yearbook, the Scottish Seafood Processors Federation Diary, the Fish Farmer Handbook and a range of wallplanners.

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