Reports from Reykjavik suggest that the allowable catch for 2008-9 will remain at 130,000 tonnes. Iceland's Marine Research Institute has even recommended a further cut to around 124,000 tonnes, but most analysts believe there will be no change. An official announcement is expected within the next few weeks.

The country's fishing industry received a major shock last summer when the Government sanctioned a huge 60,000 tonne reduction in cod catches - a move which has led to job losses and fish plant closures.

There also is little chance of any significant change within the next few years.Marine Research Institute director Jóhann Sigurjónsson told Icelandic fisheries newspaper Fiskifréttir recently: "As the next year classes coming into the fishery are weak ones, we can not expect to see a significant increase in cod fishing over at least the next four to five years."

He dismisses criticism over the Institute's recommendations this year and is adamant that fishing effort needs to be reduced to build up the stock. He says that the Institute's past recommendations have contributed to strengthening stocks and making better use of resources.

He also said that he agrees with fishermen and vessel owners that there is a great deal of cod to be seen on fishing grounds and that the Institute has not set out to deny this.

"This is all about this century's year classes from 2001 to 2007, all of which are weak and the 2001 and 2004 year classes represent practically a historical low point. In the coming years we cannot expect to see TACs increase due to the poor recruitment to the stock."

He added: "Our assessments of these year classes are quite precise. The strong cod fishing we saw this winter and the growing spawning stock are down to a few year classes at the end of the last century that have waxed and waned."

www.fishupdate.com is published by Special Publications. Special Publications also publish FISHupdate magazine, Fish Farmer, the Fish Industry Yearbook, the Scottish Seafood Processors Federation Diary, the Fish Farmer Handbook and a range of wallplanners.

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